Friday’s unexpectedly big increase in December nonfarm payrolls led to a diminished market-based likelihood for any rate cut by the Federal Reserve until September, based on one method of calculating expectations — and one big bank sees the risks tilting toward a rate hike.

The US economy closed out 2024 with another month of massive job growth, adding 256,000 positions in December.

Before the strong December jobs report was released, the odds were already low for an interest rate cut in the next Federal Reserve decision on January 29.